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A Strategic Thaw: China-EU Consensus By Wania Tahir

On January 12, a collective sigh of relief was audible across the Eurasian manufacturing landscape. After months of simmering tensions that threatened to boil over into a debilitating trade war, China and the European Union announced a breakthrough consensus on the vexing issue of electric vehicles (EVs). By agreeing to a mechanism of "price undertakings”—essentially a minimum import price—instead of proceeding with punitive tariffs that were set to reach as high as 45 percent, both powers have chosen the path of economic pragmatism over geopolitical polarization.Under this arrangement, Chinese exporters—including industry titans like BYD, SAIC, and Geely—commit to a minimum price floor for their vehicles sold in Europe. For Brussels, this alleviates the fear of "dumping” and market distortion, protecting its industrial base during a critical transition period. For Beijing, it preserves access to the lucrative Single Market, albeit at a higher price point, while avoiding the stigma and financial burden of punitive duties. Ideally, this creates a "virtuous cycle.” Chinese manufacturers will now compete on technology, range, and luxury features—areas where they have already demonstrated formidable innovation. The timing of this agreement is as significant as its substance. It arrives at a moment when the European Union is soul-searching regarding its place in the global order. For years, the prevailing narrative in Washington has been one of "systemic rivalry,” urging allies to decouple or "de-risk” aggressively from the Chinese economy.However, Europe’s refusal to blindly follow the American playbook suggests a reassertion of "strategic autonomy.” While Washington may view China primarily through the lens of hegemonistic competition, Europe views China as an essential partner in trade and the green transition.Wang Huiyao from the Center for China and Globalization (CCG) noted that the consensus was "very timely” in cooling down trade frictions. "China and Europe do not share borders,” Wang argued, striking at the core of the geopolitical reality. "There are no fundamental conflicts of interest between the two sides, and they are both defenders of multilateralism.”Wang’s analysis suggests that the era of Europe "copying the US’s homework”—automatically adopting an adversarial stance toward China—is becoming outdated. As the US increasingly turns inward with "America First” policies that often harm European industries (such as the subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act), Europe is waking up to the need for a diversified foreign policy. The EV deal demonstrates that Europe can be an independent pole, capable of saying "no” to a trade war that serves no one’s interest but the hawks’.Wang envisions this as a modern "Romance of the Three Kingdoms,” referencing the Chinese historical epoch where three states maintained a delicate balance of power. In this new configuration, Europe is not a vassal of the West nor an ally of the East, but a sovereign "third-party force.” Much like the ASEAN nations, which have successfully navigated the great power rivalry by refusing to take sides, Europe can find consensus with the United States on ideological or security matters while simultaneously deepening economic integration with China.About the Author: The author is a resident of Quetta, Balochistan, and is associated with the Global Strategic Institute for Sustainable Development – GSISD, she can be reached at waniatahir23@gmail.com

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